20110903

Ars Technica: Irene's path illustrates the challenges of hurricane forecasting

Read this article on Ars Technica. It's yet another piece on why I think we Filipinos are expecting too much from PAGASA. Here, the troubles of the US equivalent are illustrated vis-a-vis the most recent hurricane to threaten highly populated New York and other east coast cities. The key point is that there are things we can predict about typhoons and there are things we can't. I think what's happening is since we can predict some things, there's an expectation that everything about it can be predicted. It's like, since we know a basketball game is going to end up with scores above 100, the expectation is we can predict exactly what the score will be. 111-109? 103-102? Big NO.

Read up, ladies and gentlemen. Before ye speak ill. :-D

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